NFL 2025 Season Win Total Projections: Super Bowl Contenders, Dark Horses, and Rebuilding Teams
Comprehensive breakdown of 2025 NFL season win projections for all 32 teams, including Super Bowl odds and key analysis from ESPN experts.
Updated NFL Win Totals for the 2025 Season
The 2025 NFL season promises another thrilling year of football, with sportsbooks releasing their initial win projections. The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles headline a group of four teams with league-high 11.5-win projections, joined by the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs at the top.
Top Tier Contenders
- Baltimore Ravens (11.5 wins): Third-best Super Bowl odds (+650) - Ranked #3 in Mike Clay's projections (11.3 wins)
- Buffalo Bills (11.5 wins): 5 straight 11+ win seasons - Josh Allen has never missed double-digit wins as starter
- Kansas City Chiefs (11.5 wins): Mahomes has led Chiefs to 12+ wins in 6 of 7 seasons as starter
- Philadelphia Eagles (11.5 wins): Coming off 14-3 Super Bowl season - First back-to-back-to-back 11+ win seasons since 2000-04
Notable Projections and Trends
Detroit Lions (10.5 wins) continue their remarkable turnaround under Dan Campbell, coming off a franchise-record 15-win season. The Washington Commanders (10.5 wins) made the biggest leap from last season's 6.5 projection thanks to Jayden Daniels' stellar rookie campaign.
At the bottom, the Cleveland Browns (4.5 wins) have the league's lowest projection after collapsing to 3-14 following their 11-win 2023 season. Five teams sit at 5.5 wins including both New York franchises.
Key Statistics
- 9 teams have 10.5+ win projections (most since 2002 expansion)
- Bills have beaten win total in all 8 seasons under Sean McDermott
- Chiefs have had 10+ win projection for 7 straight years (NFL-best streak)
Division-by-Division Highlights
AFC North:
- Ravens (11.5)
- Bengals (10.5)
- Steelers (8.5)
- Browns (4.5)
NFC West:
- 49ers (10.5)
- Rams (10.5)
- Seahawks (8.5)
- Cardinals (8.5)
Complete Team Projections
| Team | Win Total | Clay's Projection | 2024 Record | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 11.5 | 11.3 | 12-5 | +650 |
| BUF | 11.5 | 11.7 | 13-4 | 7-1 |
| KC | 11.5 | 10.4 | 15-2 | 6-1 |
| PHI | 11.5 | 10.4 | 14-3 | 6-1 |
| DET | 10.5 | 11.9 | 15-2 | +850 |
| CIN | 10.5 | 8.6 | 9-8 | 16-1 |
| LAC | 10.5 | 8.5 | 11-6 | 22-1 |
| LAR | 10.5 | 9.1 | 10-7 | 20-1 |
| SF | 10.5 | 8.7 | 6-11 | 13-1 |
| WAS | 10.5 | 8.2 | 12-5 | 16-1 |
For complete projections on all 32 teams and updated odds, visit ESPN BET
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