Analyzing the 2025 NFL Head Coaches: Who’s Set Up for Success?

The 2025 NFL season brings a fresh wave of head coaches, each stepping into unique situations with varying levels of potential for success. Using a data-driven approach, we’ve evaluated the seven new hires to determine who is best positioned to thrive and who might face an uphill battle.

Key Factors in Our Analysis:

• Team Quality: We used a combination of Elo ratings and SRS ratings to assess last season’s performance.
• Roster Age: The average age of players across offense, defense, and special teams.
• Quarterback Potential: The age and Approximate Value (AV) of the starting quarterback over the past three seasons.

The Rankings:

1. Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys

   • Expected 5-Year Wins: 41.1
   • Starting QB: Dak Prescott (9.8 AV, age 32)
   • 2024 Elo: 19th | Offense: 21st | Defense: 30th
   • Key Stat: Dallas had the most total wins (36) over the three seasons prior to 2024 among teams that missed the playoffs.
   • Outlook: Schottenheimer inherits a team with a proven track record of winning, despite a challenging 2024 season. With Prescott’s return and a strong core, the Cowboys are poised for a playoff run.

2. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears

   • Expected 5-Year Wins: 40.7
   • Starting QB: Caleb Williams (9.0 AV, age 24)
   • 2024 Elo: 24th | Offense: 29th | Defense: 9th
   • Key Stat: Williams had the best rookie season by a Bears QB ever, with an AV of 12.
   • Outlook: Johnson’s offensive expertise and Williams’ talent could turn the Bears into a contender, though Chicago’s recent history suggests caution.

3. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars

   • Expected 5-Year Wins: 39.5
   • Starting QB: Trevor Lawrence (9.2 AV, age 26)
   • 2024 Elo: 26th | Offense: 27th | Defense: 28th
   • Key Stat: No Jaguars head coach has a winning record except for Tom Coughlin.
   • Outlook: Coen’s task is to revive Lawrence’s career and integrate 2025’s No. 2 pick, Travis Hunter, into a franchise desperate for success.

4. Aaron Glenn, New York Jets

   • Expected 5-Year Wins: 39.2
   • Starting QB: Justin Fields (9.1 AV, age 26)
   • 2024 Elo: 22nd | Offense: 23rd | Defense: 21st
   • Key Stat: The Jets’ 14-season playoff drought is the longest in the NFL.
   • Outlook: Glenn brings a culture of toughness, but the Jets’ rebuild is still in progress. Fields’ development will be key.

5. Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders

   • Expected 5-Year Wins: 39.0
   • Starting QB: Geno Smith (12.3 AV, age 35)
   • 2024 Elo: 27th | Offense: 26th | Defense: 26th
   • Key Stat: Carroll has finished below .500 just four times in 18 years, while the Raiders have only two winning seasons in 22 years.
   • Outlook: Carroll’s experience and Smith’s resurgence offer hope, but the Raiders’ long-term outlook remains uncertain.

6. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots

   • Expected 5-Year Wins: 38.8
   • Starting QB: Drake Maye (6.0 AV, age 23)
   • 2024 Elo: 28th | Offense: 30th | Defense: 22nd
   • Key Stat: The Patriots have lost more games in the past five years (51) than in the 14 seasons prior (50).
   • Outlook: Vrabel’s return brings familiarity, but Maye’s development and a roster overhaul will determine the Patriots’ success.

7. Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints

   • Expected 5-Year Wins: 38.0
   • Starting QB: Spencer Rattler (1.5 AV, age 25)
   • 2024 Elo: 25th | Offense: 25th | Defense: 18th
   • Key Stat: 2025 will feature the most inexperienced Saints QB since 1990.
   • Outlook: Moore faces a full-scale rebuild with a young roster and inexperienced QB. Patience will be key in New Orleans.

Final Thoughts:

While data provides a snapshot of each coach’s starting point, the NFL is full of surprises. Factors like injuries, player development, and in-season adjustments will ultimately shape the success of these new hires. Keep an eye on Schottenheimer in Dallas and Johnson in Chicago as potential breakout candidates, while Moore in New Orleans faces the toughest road ahead.