Lessons from the First 12-Team CFP

1. Schedule Strength Matters: Teams with weaker schedules must dominate to impress the selection committee. Indiana's 2024 season highlighted the importance of margin of victory and schedule strength, influencing future metrics.

2. Conference Championship Weekend: Teams not playing on this crucial weekend may see little movement in rankings, emphasizing the need for strong performances throughout the season.

3. Early Losses Can Be Overcome: Notre Dame's early loss to Northern Illinois didn't prevent them from reaching the national title game, showing that early setbacks can be mitigated by strong finishes.

4. Dangerous No. 11 and No. 12 Spots: Even in a 12-team playoff, finishing in the top 10 is crucial to avoid being bumped by conference champions.

Bubble Teams with Early Tests

• Boise State: Critical games against South Florida and Notre Dame will test their playoff mettle.
• South Florida: A tough start against three ranked opponents could make or break their season.
• Miami: Key nonconference games against Notre Dame and Florida State will be pivotal for their playoff hopes.
• Oklahoma: Early games against Michigan and Auburn will reveal their true potential.
• Florida: A challenging October schedule will determine their SEC standing.

Group of 5 Contenders with No Margin for Error

• Tulane: A strong chance in the American conference, but must overcome a weak schedule.
• UNLV: Competing with Boise State for the Mountain West title, crucial games will define their season.
• Memphis: Hosting Arkansas could be a key win to separate them from other Group of 5 teams.
• Navy: A tough schedule, including Notre Dame, will test their resilience.
• UTSA: Rebounding from a tough opener at Texas A&M is essential for their playoff hopes.

Conclusion

The 2025 NCAAF playoff race is wide open, with Group of 5 teams like Boise State leading the charge. Early season tests and strong finishes will be crucial for these teams to secure their spot in the top 12.