Optimizing MLB Pitching: A Deep Dive into Pitch Selection and Performance

Introduction

Pitching in Major League Baseball (MLB) is as much an art as it is a science. With the advent of advanced analytics, pitchers can now fine-tune their arsenals to maximize effectiveness. This article delves into the concept of Nash Scores, a metric rooted in game theory, to evaluate how pitchers are optimizing their pitch selection.

The Science Behind Pitch Selection

Modern pitchers rely on a combination of data and intuition to keep hitters guessing. The shape, spin, and velocity of each pitch are meticulously analyzed to create a repertoire that can confound even the best hitters. However, despite this sophistication, inefficiencies in pitch deployment can still exist.

Understanding Nash Scores

The Nash Score, named after the Nash equilibrium in game theory, compares the runs a pitcher saves with each pitch to the average runs saved by all of his other pitches combined. A low Nash Score indicates a balanced pitch mix, while a high score suggests potential inefficiencies.

Top Optimized Starters

Here are the top 15 starters who have achieved the greatest balance in their pitch selection over the past three seasons:

Pitcher	Team(s)	WAR	Nash Score	No. 1 Pitch	No. 2 Pitch
Jake Irvin	WSN	4.1	0.05	4-Seam FB (35%), +0.13	Curveball (33%), -0.13
Garrett Crochet	CHW, BOS	6.7	0.06	4-Seam FB (49%), -0.14	Cutter (28%), +0.18
Kutter Crawford	BOS	4.6	0.09	4-Seam FB (35%), -0.11	Cutter (31%), +0.43
Jesus Luzardo	MIA, PHI	6.4	0.11	4-Seam FB (40%), -0.20	Slider (32%), +0.46
Ryan Pepiot	LAD, TBR	4.3	0.11	4-Seam FB (48%), +0.32	Changeup (24%), -0.37
Freddy Peralta	MIL	7.3	0.15	4-Seam FB (55%), +0.08	Changeup (18%), +0.67
Taj Bradley	TBR	1.8	0.21	4-Seam FB (43%), -0.57	Cutter (22%), +0.22
Taijuan Walker	PHI	1.8	0.25	Splitter (26%), -0.57	Sinker (23%), -0.16
Corbin Burnes	MIL, BAL, ARI	9.2	0.34	Cutter (50%), +0.57	Curveball (20%), +0.03
MacKenzie Gore	WSN	6.1	0.36	4-Seam FB (54%), +0.04	Curveball (21%), +0.31
Tarik Skubal	DET	12.5	0.37	4-Seam FB (32%), -0.05	Changeup (28%), +0.62
Justin Verlander	HOU, NYM, SFG	3.9	0.39	4-Seam FB (49%), -0.09	Slider (25%), +0.94
Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	8.2	0.41	4-Seam FB (35%), -0.30	Splitter (30%), +0.84
Jameson Taillon	CHC	4.2	0.42	4-Seam FB (34%), -0.48	Cutter (20%), +0.44
Reese Olson	DET	4.5	0.42	Slider (27%), +0.47	Sinker (24%), +0.15

Top Optimized Relievers

Relievers often have simpler repertoires, making it easier to achieve a balanced pitch mix. Here are the top 15 relievers who have excelled in this area:

Pitcher	Team(s)	WAR	Nash Score	No. 1 Pitch	No. 2 Pitch
Paul Sewald	ARI, SEA, CLE	1.2	0.01	4-Seam FB (58%), +0.05	Slider (41%), -0.06
Colin Poche	TBR, WSN	1.2	0.01	4-Seam FB (68%), +0.11	Slider (32%), -0.11
Tanner Scott	MIA, SDP, LAD	6.2	0.03	4-Seam FB (56%), -0.14	Slider (44%), +0.15
Joe Jimenez	ATL	2.5	0.03	4-Seam FB (51%), -0.06	Slider (44%), -0.08
Alexis Díaz	CIN	1.6	0.03	4-Seam FB (56%), -0.18	Slider (44%), +0.18
Orion Kerkering	PHI	1.8	0.03	Slider (56%), +0.06	4-Seam FB (28%), -0.26
A.J. Minter	ATL, NYM	2	0.08	4-Seam FB (46%), -0.02	Cutter (39%), +0.30
Elvis Peguero	MIL	1.1	0.08	Slider (50%), +0.27	Sinker (50%), -0.26
Brad Keller	KCR, BOS, CHW, CHC	0.6	0.09	4-Seam FB (39%), +0.07	Slider (37%), +0.07
Edwin Diaz	NYM	1.6	0.1	4-Seam FB (52%), +0.31	Slider (48%), -0.31
Jeremiah Estrada	CHC, SDP	1.6	0.1	4-Seam FB (61%), -0.10	Slider (20%), -0.36
Kyle Finnegan	WSN	2	0.12	4-Seam FB (68%), +0.31	Splitter (28%), -0.10
Luis Garcia	SDP, BOS, LAA, LAD	0	0.12	Sinker (45%), -0.32	Slider (29%), -0.05
Ryan Walker	SFG	3.1	0.15	Sinker (55%), +0.07	Slider (44%), +0.01
Craig Kimbrel	PHI, BAL, ATL	0.8	0.15	4-Seam FB (66%), +0.26	Kn. Curve (30%), -0.37

Conclusion

Nash Scores provide a unique lens through which to view pitcher performance. By analyzing pitch selection and effectiveness, we can identify pitchers who are maximizing their arsenals and those who may need to adjust their strategies. Whether you're a fan, analyst, or player, understanding these metrics can offer valuable insights into the complex world of MLB pitching.